Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 34.777280 37.629344 40.738756 44.405315 48.643481 53.429579 59.303160
2025-04-13 29.807200 33.438874 37.649701 42.973596 49.647783 57.916968 69.245828
2025-04-20 27.993226 32.236460 37.385761 44.257709 53.463315 65.826622 84.611615
2025-04-27 26.607433 31.267670 37.129696 45.305778 56.895814 73.633655 101.747680
2025-05-04 25.335293 30.255314 36.625513 45.841380 59.556600 80.704987 119.847299
2025-05-11 23.963178 28.964399 35.583350 45.435303 60.680125 85.510292 135.618571
2025-05-18 22.699703 27.706046 34.451222 44.730803 61.173903 89.280554 150.775838
2025-05-25 21.538920 26.499760 33.282751 43.826135 61.176326 92.123477 165.125025
2025-06-01 20.537280 25.446037 32.246202 43.005980 61.179134 94.923708 180.708682
2025-06-08 19.535857 24.335165 31.050478 41.822997 60.393143 96.008217 192.449330
2025-06-15 19.299837 24.283774 31.390254 43.094242 64.092159 107.083602 240.550486
2025-06-22 18.723428 23.710680 30.909053 42.970744 65.198072 112.827037 276.811897
2025-06-29 18.049640 22.986062 30.187542 42.440440 65.572470 117.282742 314.689932
2025-07-06 17.230098 22.015510 29.041187 41.105244 64.218085 117.265076 334.078420
2025-07-13 17.059000 21.988258 29.347590 42.298571 68.124065 131.964517 454.398877
2025-07-20 16.847319 21.886195 29.524035 43.271386 71.739039 147.482704 636.599795
2025-07-27 16.549674 21.637567 29.446379 43.768122 74.396768 161.440341 892.345276
2025-08-03 16.099408 21.135290 28.926455 43.391537 74.994156 168.968438 1145.637369
2025-08-10 15.624895 20.577289 28.286956 42.737827 74.846412 173.905587 1431.486099
2025-08-17 15.143625 19.992119 27.576299 41.897676 74.142786 176.608328 1739.695287
2025-08-24 14.703595 19.457016 26.927118 41.135324 73.545044 179.635053 2178.795520
2025-08-31 14.224785 18.847186 26.129518 40.034550 71.977473 178.261749 2461.511496
2025-09-07 14.176963 18.911771 26.472256 41.217397 76.439567 205.161613 8775.422701